Bracketology: Off the Block’s latest NCAA Tournament projections

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Off the Block throughout the rest of the postseason will unveil its latest detailed projections to the NCAA Tournament.

The men’s volleyball Division I-II NCAA Tournament is comprised of 12 teams. Automatic bids are awarded to the winners of the Big West, ConfCarolinas, EIVA, MIVA, MPSF, NEC and SIAC conference tournaments, and the NCAA men’s volleyball committee selects five teams for at-large bids.

The five-person selection committee meets following all of the conference tournaments to decide the at-large teams and the tournament seeding. The field for the NCAA Tournament is scheduled to be released during Selection Sunday on April 26.

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Off the Block is in its 15th season of providing college men’s volleyball bracketology.

NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS

TOP-FOUR SEEDS

SeedTeamRecordQualification
No. 1UCLA26-1MPSF champ
No. 2Hawai’i26-4Big West champ
No. 3Long Beach State22-4At-large
No. 4Ball State23-4MIVA champ

About the seeds: Only the top four teams will receive a seed in the NCAA Tournament. Each seed will be placed in a separate region to ensure that seeded teams will not face each other until at least the NCAA Tournament semifinals. There are no requirements that a seeded team needs to be a conference champion.

UNSEEDED TEAMS

TeamRecordQualification
Belmont Abbey20-5CC champ
Fort Valley State16-12SIAC champ
Penn State20-7EIVA champ
Saint Francis16-11NEC champ
Pepperdine22-5At-large
Loyola19-7At-large
UC Irvine17-7At-large
Lindenwood20-7At-large

About the unseeded: The eight unseeded teams can be placed into any of the four regions. While geography won’t factor into determining the tournament field, it will factor into the regional placement to reduce travel expenses. Regional locations will be selected from the pool of schools that submit bids to host by the April 17 deadline. A seeded team does not automatically earn the right to host its region, even if its school submits a bid.

LAST IN AND FIRST OUT

Last Two InFirst Two Out
UC Irvine (17-7)McKendree (18-10)
Lindenwood (20-7)USC (16-7)

Quick breakdown: Lindenwood was upset in the MIVA Tournament quarterfinals, but that loss was not as devastating in the bracketology as USC’s two losses to Pepperdine during the weekend. These two losses dropped the Trojans behind the Lions for the final at-large bid. Lindenwood holds the edge over USC in every major criteria category — KPI ranking, RPI ranking, strength of schedule and record against teams under NCAA Tournament consideration. There is no mathematical path forward for the USC in an at-large bid race to surpass Lindenwood in most of these criteria categories. UCLA and Hawai’i have virtually locked up the top two seed, while Pepperdine, Long Beach State are all in contention for the two final seeds. Both Pepperdine and Long Beach State hold the edge right now. However, Ball State is well positioned to retake the edge by Selection Sunday if it wins the MIVA Tournament and either Pepperdine or Long Beach State lose in their conference tournaments.