Follow
Selection Sunday has arrived and with it Off the Block’s final bracketology projections to the NCAA Tournament.
The men’s volleyball Division I-II NCAA Tournament is comprised of nine teams. Automatic bids are awarded to the winners of the Big West, ConfCarolinas, EIVA, MIVA, MPSF, NEC and SIAC conference tournaments, and the NCAA men’s volleyball committee selects two teams for at-large bids.
The five-person selection committee meets following all of the conference tournaments to decide the at-large teams and the tournament seeding. The field for the NCAA Tournament is scheduled to be released during Selection Sunday.
Off the Block is in its 14th season of providing college men’s volleyball bracketology.
NCAA Tournament projections (Selection Sunday)
NCAA Tournament play-in match (for No. 7 seed)
Penn State vs. Daemen
NCAA Tournament quarterfinals
No. 1 seed Hawai’i vs. No. 8 seed Fort Valley State
No. 2 seed Long Beach State vs. No. 7 seed Penn State/Daemen
No. 3 seed UCLA vs. No. 6 seed Belmont Abbey
No. 4 seed Loyola vs. No. 5 seed Pepperdine
Last four out
UC Irvine
USC
McKendree
Lincoln Memorial
Quick-ish breakdown: There are four tight bracketology races entering Selection Sunday – the race for the No. 1 seed, the race for the final at-large bid, the race for the No. 6 seed and who is placed in the play-in match.
Race for the No. 1 seed.
Long Beach State following its loss to Hawai’i in the Big West Tournament finals continues to be atop the KPI and RPI. However, the Rainbow Warriors now hold the advantage in the head-to-head category and have a slightly better record than the Beach in record versus teams under consideration. This race will likely come down to what category the committee values more. The piece of data that jumps out in favor of Hawai’i is being 9-2 against teams in the top 10 of the RPI, while Long Beach State is 7-3.
Race for the final at-large bid
UCLA continues to hold the advantage over UC Irvine in the overwhelming majority of criteria categories – KPI, RPI, head-to-head and record against teams under NCAA Tournament consideration. The Bruins also have two more wins than the Anteaters in matches against top 10 RPI teams. UC Irvine does have the best strength of schedule in the nation, but with UCLA also being in the top five for strength of schedule that datapoint is not enough to overcome all the other datapoints.
Race for the No. 6 seed
Penn State and Belmont Abbey battling for the No. 6 seed is the tightest bracketology race this season. The Nittany Lions hold a slight advantage in the KPI, while the Crusaders hold a slight advantage in the RPI. The Nittany Lions have a better strength of schedule to help counterbalance the Crusaders having a significantly better record. The datapoint, though, that jumps out and gives Belmont Abbey the edge for the No. 6 seed is record against ranked outside of the top 15 of the RPI – Belmont Abbey is 17-4 compared to Penn State at 14-6. The datapoint that hurts the Crusaders, though, is the ConfCarolinas conference RPI at No. 7. Penn State also had a better average RPI win and average RPI loss. This race is truly a toss-up and that could go either way.
Play-in match
The play-in match based on all the data points will be either Belmont Abbey versus Fort Valley State or Penn State versus Daemen. The play-in match is not a true No. 8 versus No. 9 match-up but rather a matchup largely based on geography to reduce team travel. Belmont Abbey and Penn State are a push in the data, but Fort Valley State has significantly better bracketology data than Daemen. There is also the possibility that the play-in match could get bumped up to the No. 6 seed just because of how close the datapoints are between Belmont Abbey and Penn State.