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Yes, Long Beach State and Hawai’i have likely locked-up the top-two seeds for the NCAA Tournament, but there are still plenty of tight races remaining one month before the bracket is unveiled.
Off the Block crunched the numbers using the same criteria as the selection committee to show how the top teams in the nation fare against each other in the race for the two at-large bids and NCAA Tournament positioning.
Below are all of the criteria categories the selection committee uses to determine the NCAA Tournament field.
— RPI ranking
— Strength of schedule
— Won-lost results
— Head-to-head competition
— Results versus non-conference opponents
— Home and away results
— Results against common opponents
— Results against teams already qualified and other teams under consideration
— Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships.
Some selection committees in previous seasons have placed a greater emphasis on a certain categories. However, there is no requirement that the committee gives additional weight to a certain category.
The seven-team NCAA Tournament will comprised of conference automatic bids from the Big West, ConfCarolinas, EIVA, MIVA, and MPSF along with two at-large bids.
Here’s how the at-large bids and tournament seeding races look right now using the selection committee criteria.
[Editor’s note: Teams projected to qualify or be under consideration are Barton, BYU, Hawai’i, Lewis, Long Beach State, Pepperdine, Princeton, UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, UCLA. The teams under consideration are subject to change until Selection Sunday on April 22. Both Long Beach State and Hawai’i were omitted from the Race for the Final At-large Bid section because because they are projected to overwhelmingly secure the top-two seeds. With both teams being in the Big West, one is projected to win the conference’s automatic bid and the other will receive the first at-large bid.]
Race for the No. 1 overall seed
Long Beach State vs. Hawai’i
RPI ranking: Long Beach State No. 2; Hawai’i No. 1 Edge: Hawai’i
Strength of schedule: Long Beach State No. 15; Hawai’i No. 11 Edge: Hawai’i
Won-lost results: Long Beach State 19-0; Hawai’i 18-0. Edge: Push
Head-to-head competition: Have yet to play each other this season. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Long Beach State 15-0; Hawai’i 14-0. Edge: Push
Home record: Long Beach State 8-0; Hawai’i 12-0. Edge: Push
Road record: Long Beach State 6-0; Hawai’i 4-0. Edge: Push
Record vs. common opponents: Long Beach State 9-0; Hawai’i 10-0. Edge: Push
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Long Beach State 5-0; Hawai’i 3-0. Edge: Push
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
Race for the final at-large bid
UC Santa Barbara vs. Pepperdine
RPI ranking: UC Santa Barbara No. 4; Pepperdine No. 3 Edge: Pepperdine
Strength of schedule: UC Santa Barbara No. 7; Pepperdine No. 2 Edge: Pepperdine
Won-lost results: UC Santa Barbara 15-5; Pepperdine 15-6. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Head-to-head competition: Pepperdine won season series 2-0. Edge: Pepperdine
Non-conference record: UC Santa Barbara 13-3; Pepperdine 10-3. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Home record: UC Santa Barbara 10-2; Pepperdine 7-0. Edge: Pepperdine
Road record: UC Santa Barbara 3-3; Pepperdine 6-6. Edge: Push
Record vs. common opponents: UC Santa Barbara 10-1; Pepperdine 7-5. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UC Santa Barbara 4-5; Pepperdine 4-4. Edge: Pepperdine
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
UC Santa Barbara vs. UC Irvine
RPI ranking: UC Santa Barbara No. 4; UC Irvine No. 8. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Strength of schedule: UC Santa Barbara No. 7; UC Irvine No. 8. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Won-lost results: UC Santa Barbara 15-5; UC Irvine 14-6. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Head-to-head competition: Have yet to play each other this season. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: UC Santa Barbara 13-3; UC Irvine 14-4. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Home record: UC Santa Barbara 10-2; UC Irvine 4-2. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Road record: UC Santa Barbara 3-3; UC Irvine 8-4. Edge: UC Irvine
Record vs. common opponents: UC Santa Barbara 9-4; UC Irvine 9-4. Edge: Push
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UC Santa Barbara 4-5; UC Irvine 4-2. Edge: UC Irvine
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
UC Santa Barbara vs. UCLA
RPI ranking: UC Santa Barbara No. 4; UCLA No. 5. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Strength of schedule: UC Santa Barbara No. 7; UCLA No. 9. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Won-lost results: UC Santa Barbara 15-5; UCLA 16-6. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Head-to-head competition: Split season series at 1-1. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: UC Santa Barbara 13-3; UCLA 10-4. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Home record: UC Santa Barbara 10-2; UCLA 7-1. Edge: UCLA
Road record: UC Santa Barbara 3-3; UCLA 7-5. Edge: UCLA
Record vs. common opponents: UC Santa Barbara 11-4; UCLA 11-4. Edge: Push
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UC Santa Barbara 4-5; UCLA 5-4. Edge: UCLA
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Opposite Austin Matautia out with a lower-leg injury. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Barbara vs. BYU
RPI ranking: UC Santa Barbara No. 4; BYU No. 7. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Strength of schedule: UC Santa Barbara No. 7; BYU No. 4. Edge: BYU
Won-lost results: UC Santa Barbara 15-5; BYU 12-6. Edge: BYU
Head-to-head competition: UC Santa Barbara won season series 2-0. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Non-conference record: UC Santa Barbara 13-3; BYU 6-3. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Home record: UC Santa Barbara 10-2; BYU 10-1. Edge: BYU
Road record: UC Santa Barbara 3-3; BYU 1-5. Edge: BYU
Record vs. common opponents: UC Santa Barbara 6-3; BYU 8-3. Edge: BYU
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UC Santa Barbara 4-5; BYU 3-5. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Setter Wil Stanley out with a lower-leg injury. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Pepperdine vs. UC Irvine
RPI ranking: Pepperdine No. 3; UC Irvine No. 8 Edge: Pepperdine
Strength of schedule: Pepperdine No. 2; UC Irvine No. 8 Edge: Pepperdine
Won-lost results: Pepperdine 15-6; UC Irvine 14-6. Edge: Pepperdine
Head-to-head competition: UC Irvine leads season series 1-0. Edge: UC Irvine
Non-conference record: Pepperdine 10-3; UC Irvine 12-4. Edge: Pepperdine
Home record: Pepperdine 7-0; UC Irvine 4-2. Edge: Pepperdine
Road record: Pepperdine 6-6; UC Irvine 8-4. Edge: UC Irvine
Record vs. common opponents: Pepperdine 14-5; UC Irvine 12-6. Edge: Pepperdine
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Pepperdine 4-4; UC Irvine 4-2. Edge: UC Irvine
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
UC Irvine vs. UCLA
RPI ranking: UC Irvine No. 8; UCLA No. 5. Edge: UCLA
Strength of schedule: UC Irvine No. 8; UCLA No. 9. Edge: UC Irvine
Won-lost results: UC Irvine 14-6; UCLA 16-6. Edge: UCLA
Head-to-head competition: Will not play each other this season. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: UC Irvine 14-4; UCLA 10-4. Edge: UC Irvine
Home record: UC Irvine 4-2; UCLA 7-1. Edge: UCLA
Road record: UC Irvine 8-4; UCLA 7-5. Edge: UCLA
Record vs. common opponents: UC Irvine 10-4; UCLA 12-6 . Edge: UC Irvine
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UC Irvine 4-2; UCLA 5-4. Edge: UC Irvine
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Opposite Austin Matautia out with a lower-leg injury. Edge: UC Irvine
UC Irvine vs. BYU
RPI ranking: UC Irvine No. 8; BYU No. 7. Edge: BYU
Strength of schedule: UC Irvine No. 8; BYU No. 4. Edge: BYU
Won-lost results: UC Irvine 14-6; BYU 12-6. Edge: UC Irvine
Head-to-head competition: Split season series at 1-1. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: UC Irvine 14-4; BYU 6-3. Edge: UC Irvine
Home record: UC Irvine 4-2; BYU 10-1. Edge: BYU
Road record: UC Irvine 8-4; BYU 1-5. Edge: UC Irvine
Record vs. common opponents: UC Irvine 7-5; BYU 8-5. Edge: UC Irvine
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UC Irvine 4-2; BYU 3-5. Edge: UC Irvine
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Setter Wil Stanley out with a lower-leg injury. Edge: UC Irvine
Race for tournament positioning
Lewis vs. Princeton
RPI ranking: Lewis No. 9; Princeton No. 21. Edge: Lewis
Strength of schedule: Lewis No. 18; Princeton No. 25. Edge: Lewis
Won-lost results: Lewis 17-4; Princeton 10-10. Edge: Lewis
Head-to-head competition: Lewis won season series 1-0. Edge: Lewis
Non-conference record: Lewis 8-4; Princeton 2-9. Edge: Lewis
Home record: Lewis 6-3; Princeton 4-1. Edge: Princeton
Road record: Lewis 10-1; Princeton 5-8. Edge: Lewis
Record vs. common opponents: Lewis 8-3; Princeton 4-6. Edge: UC Irvine
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Lewis 1-4; Princeton 0-4. Edge: Lewis
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
Lewis vs. Barton
RPI ranking: Lewis No. 9; Barton No. 13. Edge: Lewis
Strength of schedule: Lewis No. 18; Barton No. 33. Edge: Lewis
Won-lost results: Lewis 17-4; Barton 15-3. Edge: Barton
Head-to-head competition: Will not play each other this season. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Lewis 8-4; Barton 6-2. Edge: Barton
Home record: Lewis 6-3; Barton 6-2. Edge: Barton
Road record: Lewis 10-1; Barton 6-1. Edge: Lewis
Record vs. common opponents: Lewis 4-0; Barton 3-1. Edge: Lewis
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Lewis 1-4; Barton 0-1. Edge: Lewis
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
Princeton vs. Barton
RPI ranking: Princeton No. 21; Barton No. 13. Edge: Barton
Strength of schedule: Princeton No. 25; Barton No. 33. Edge: Princeton
Won-lost results: Princeton 10-10; Barton 15-3. Edge: Barton
Head-to-head competition: Will not play each other this season. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Princeton 2-9; Barton 6-2. Edge: Barton
Home record: Princeton 4-1; Barton 6-2. Edge: Princeton
Road record: Princeton 5-8; Barton 6-1. Edge: Barton
Record vs. common opponents: Princeton 2-1; Barton 4-0. Edge: Barton
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: LPrinceton 0-4; Barton 0-1. Edge: Push
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push