The expansion of the NCAA Tournament has expanded the possibility of a non-West Coast team receiving an at-large bid.
An Off the Block bracketology analysis of the last four seasons reveals a MIVA team would have been projected to receive an at-large bid in at least two of the seasons under the new 12-team tournament format.
The NCAA announced earlier this week the men’s volleyball NCAA Tournament field would increase from nine to 12 teams. The tournament will continue to feature seven automatic bids for the conferences, but the number at-large bids will increase from two to five.
West Coast schools have historically benefitted from at-large bids – earning all but three of the at-large bids since the NCAA Tournament started in 1970.
The Big West and MPSF in previous years would have continued to benefit from the tournament expansion with each conference garnering at least two at-large bids most seasons, according to the analysis.
The chances, though, of a conference earning three at-large bids becomes increasingly more challenging.
A conference’s fourth-best team typically has weaker bracketology datapoints than the top-tier teams in the conference. This increases the possibility of a team from the MIVA or EIVA having more compelling bracketology datapoints and earning an at-large bid, according to the analysis.
Check out the projected bracketology of the last four years if the NCAA Tournament was a 12-team field. Plus, an expanded breakdown of how teams would have compared against each other for the final at-large bid using the selection committee criteria.
2022 NCAA Tournament
NCAA Tournament field: Ball State, Hawai’i, North Greenville, Long Beach State (at-large), Pepperdine, Princeton, UCLA (at-large)
Retroactive conference auto-bids: Central State (SIAC); Daemen (NEC)
Projected next two at-large bids: Penn State, USC
Projected final at-large bid race: Loyola, UC Santa Barbara
Final at-large bid race
Loyola vs. UC Santa Barbara
KPI ranking: Loyola No. 7; UC Santa Barbara No. 8. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
RPI ranking: Loyola No. 7; UC Santa Barbara No. 8. Edge: Loyola
Strength of schedule: Loyola No. 8; UC Santa Barbara No. 13. Edge: Loyola
Won-lost results: Loyola 18-9; UC Santa Barbara 17-9. Edge: Loyola
Head-to-head competition: Did not play each other. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Loyola 6-5; UC Santa Barbara 10-5. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Home record: Loyola 11-5; UC Santa Barbara 9-4. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Road record: Loyola 7-4; UC Santa Barbara 7-5. Edge: Loyola
Record vs. common opponents: Loyola 1-5; UC Santa Barbara 3-3. Edge: UC Santa Barbara
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Loyola 2-3; UC Santa Barbara 3-9. Edge: Loyola
Additional data points of note
Record vs. RPI top 5: Loyola 2-3; UC Santa Barbara 1-5. Edge: Loyola
Record vs. RPI top 10: Loyola 4-4; UC Santa Barbara 1-8. Edge: Loyola
2023 NCAA Tournament
NCAA Tournament field: Grand Canyon (at-large bid); Hawai’i, King, Long Beach State (at-large), Ohio State, Penn State, UCLA
Retroactive conference auto-bids: Edward Waters (SIAC); Long Island (NEC)
Projected next two at-large bids: BYU, UC Irvine
Projected final at-large bid race: Ball State, Stanford
Final at-large bid race
Ball State vs. Stanford
KPI ranking: Ball State No. 9; Stanford No. 12. Edge: Ball State
RPI ranking: Ball State No. 9; Stanford No. 11. Edge: Ball State
Strength of schedule: Ball State No. 12; Stanford No. 3. Edge: Stanford
Won-lost results: Ball State 20-9; Stanford 13-13. Edge: Ball State
Head-to-head competition: Did not play each other. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Ball State 8-6; Stanford 5-7. Edge: Ball State
Home record: Ball State 13-3; Stanford 11-8. Edge: Ball State
Road record: Ball State 6-6; Stanford 1-4. Edge: Ball State
Record vs. common opponents: Ball State 3-5; Stanford 4-4. Edge: Stanford
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Ball State 3-8; Stanford 3-9. Edge: Ball State
Additional data points of note
Record vs. RPI top 5: Ball State 0-4; Stanford 2-6. Edge: Stanford
Record vs. RPI top 10: Ball State 3-8; Stanford 3-9. Edge: Ball State
2024 NCAA Tournament
NCAA Tournament field: Belmont Abbey, Fort Valley State, Grand Canyon, Long Beach State, Ohio State, Penn State, UC Irvine (at-large bid); UCLA (at-large bid)
Retroactive conference auto-bids: Daemen (NEC)
Projected next two at-large bids: Hawai’i, BYU
Projected final at-large bid race: Loyola, Stanford
Final at-large bid race
Loyola vs. Stanford
KPI ranking: Loyola No. 9; Stanford No. 10. Edge: Loyola
RPI ranking: Loyola No. 11; Stanford No. 9. Edge: Stanford
Strength of schedule: Loyola No. 16; Stanford No. 2. Edge: Stanford
Won-lost results: Loyola 19-10; Stanford 14-12. Edge: Loyola
Head-to-head competition: Stanford won the season series 2-0. Edge: Stanford
Non-conference record: Loyola 6-5; Stanford 7-5. Edge: Stanford
Home record: Loyola 11-5; Stanford 6-4. Edge: Loyola
Road record: Loyola 7-4; Stanford 5-7. Edge: Loyola
Record vs. common opponents: Loyola 1-5; Stanford 2-5. Edge: Stanford
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Loyola 3-6; Stanford 4-11. Edge: Loyola
Additional data points of note
Record vs. RPI top 5: Loyola 2-2; Stanford 1-5. Edge: Loyola
Record vs. RPI top 10: Loyola 3-6; Stanford 4-11. Edge: Loyola
2025 NCAA Tournament
NCAA Tournament field: Belmont Abbey, Daemen, Fort Valley State, Hawai’i, Long Beach State (at-large bid), Loyola, Penn State, UCLA (at-large bid)
Projected next two at-large bids: UC Irvine, USC
Projected final at-large bid race: McKendree, BYU, Grand Canyon, Ohio State
Final at-large bid race
McKendree vs. BYU vs. Grand Canyon vs. Ohio State
KPI ranking: Grand Canyon No. 8; BYU No. 10; Ohio State No. 11; McKendree No. 13. Edge: Grand Canyon
RPI ranking: McKendree No. 6; BYU No. 9 Grand Canyon No. 10; Ohio State No. 11. Edge: McKendree
Strength of schedule: Ohio State No. 8; BYU No. 11; Grand Canyon No. 12; McKendree No. 14. Edge: Ohio State
Won-lost results: McKendree 20-8; BYU 19-10; Grand Canyon 18-10; Ohio State 18-11. Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-head competition: BYU 3-1; Grand Canyon 1-1; Ohio State 2-3; McKendree 1-2. Edge: BYU
Non-conference record: Grand Canyon 12-4; BYU 12-5; McKendree 6-5; Ohio State 6-6. Edge: Grand Canyon
Home record: McKendree 13-2; BYU 12-4; Grand Canyon 11-4; Ohio State 10-5. Edge: McKendree
Road record: Ohio State 7-5; BYU 7-5 McKendree 7-6; Grand Canyon 4-6. Edge: BYU, Ohio State
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Grand Canyon 6-8; Ohio State 5-8; BYU 5-9; McKendree 2-6. Edge: Grand Canyon
Additional data points of note
Record vs. RPI top 5: Grand Canyon 1-2; McKendree 1-4; Ohio State 1-4; BYU 0-6. Edge: Grand Canyon
Record vs. RPI top 10: Ohio State 3-8; BYU 3-9; McKendree 1-4; Grand Canyon 2-8. Edge: Ohio State