Bracketology: Breakdown of race for NCAA Tournament top-two seeds

There is no certainty at the top of the bracket days before Selection Sunday.

Hawai’i, Long Beach State, Penn State and UCLA all remain in contention for the top two-seeds to the NCAA Tournament, according to the latest bracketology projections.

The current format of the seven-team NCAA Tournament features the top-two teams receiving byes to the semifinals.

Off the Block crunched the numbers using the same criteria as the selection committee to show how these top teams in the nation fare against each other. While Off the Block has provided previous bracketology head-to-head comparison, this breakdown is a four-way comparison for each category.

Below are all of the criteria categories the selection committee uses to determine the NCAA Tournament field. Off the Block also has included an unofficially weighted and unweighted overall standings, which are not used by the committee but are included to give the reader context of teams that may hold an overall edge.

RPI rankings
1. UCLA No. 1 (.67058)
2. Penn State No. 2 (.66029)
3. Hawai’i No. 3 (.64847)
4. Long Beach State No. 4 (.63982)

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Head-to-head competition
1. UCLA 3-2
2. Hawai’i 2-2
3. Penn State 2-2
4. Long Beach State 2-3

Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration
1. UCLA 8-2
2. Hawai’i 4-2
T-3. Penn State 3-3
T-3. Long Beach State 3-3

[Editor’s note: Teams projected to qualify or be under consideration are Ball State, BYU, Grand Canyon, Hawai’i, Long Beach State, North Greenville, Ohio State, Penn State and UCLA.]

Strength of schedule
1. Penn State No. 5 (.621)
2. UCLA No. 6 (.619)
3. Long Beach State No. 12 (.601)
4. Hawai’i No. 16 (.584)

Won-lost results
1. UCLA 27-2
2. Hawai’i 26-2
3. Penn State 24-3
4. Long Beach State 20-3

Non-conference record
1. Hawai’i 17-1
2. UCLA 15-2
3. Long Beach State 11-2
4. Penn State 14-3

Home record
1. UCLA 10-0
2. Long Beach State 11-1
3. Hawai’i 17-2
4. Penn State 9-2

Road record
T-1. Penn State 11-0
T-1. Hawai’i 9-0
3. UCLA 12-2
4. Long Beach State 8-2

Record against common opponents
There was no common opponent that played all four teams this season.

Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships
No eligibility issues for any team.

Unweighted overall standings

1. UCLA – 28 points
2. Hawai’i – 22 points
3. Penn State – 19 points
4. Long Beach State – 14 points

[Editor’s note: Each category is considered equal. The team finishing in first in a category receives four points, second place receives three points, third place receives two points, fourth place receives one point.]

Weighted overall standings

1. UCLA – 43 points
2. Hawai’i – 31 points
3. Penn State – 30 points
4. Long Beach State – 21 points

[Editor’s note: Categories that in the past have been valued more by the committee are RPI, head-to-head, record against teams under consideration and strength of schedule. The team finishing in first in a category receives four points, second place receives three points, third place receives two points, fourth place receives one point. The points are doubled in the above noted higher value categories]