MPSF Tournament: Possible seeding scenarios, postseason berths

Photo by Fabiana Huffaker

Three teams still have a chance to win the MPSF regular season title and the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament entering the final week of the regular season.

The top seed in the MPSF Tournament gets a first-round bye and plays host to the semifinals and finals. In addition, the No. 2-4 seeds in this seven-team tournament field earn the right to host the first-round match at home.

Check out the current standings and the possible seeding scenarios for the MPSF teams.

MPSF standings

Team MPSF Overall MB
y-T-1. Pepperdine 7-3 17-6
y-T-1. UCLA 7-3 17-7
x-3. USC 6-4 15-8 -1
x-4. BYU 6-5 12-10 -1.5
x-5. Stanford 5-6 14-10 -2.5
x-6. Concordia-Irvine 3-7 14-16 -4
x-7. Grand Canyon 2-8 12-14 -5

LEGEND
x – Clinched postseason berth
y – Clinched home court for first round of postseason
z – Clinched conference regular season title and home court for conference tournament

Pepperdine

Remaining matches: vs. USC, vs. Concordia-Irvine

— It can clinch the top seed in MPSF Tournament with two wins or a win, a UCLA loss and a USC loss.
— The lowest possible seed for Pepperdine is No. 3 in the MPSF Tournament. The only scenario that happens under is UCLA winning out and Pepperdine losing out.
— Pepperdine holds the tiebreaker versus UCLA (percentage of sets won).
— The only scenario when head-to-head tiebreaker would come into play between USC and Pepperdine involves USC beating Pepperdine on Thursday — and as a result winning the head-to-head series.
— A tiebreaker between BYU and Pepperdine only comes into the equation if Pepperdine loses both of its matches and BYU beats Grand Canyon. Pepperdine wins this tiebreaker by virtue of percentage of sets won.

UCLA

Remaining matches: vs. Concordia-Irvine, at USC

— It can clinch the top seed in MPSF Tournament with two wins and a Pepperdine loss.
— The lowest possible seed for UCLA is No. 3 in the MPSF Tournament. There are two scenarios for this to happen. One involves UCLA losing both matches and USC losing to Pepperdine but then sweeping UCLA by more than a combined margin of 12 points. The other involves USC winning the No. 1 seed.
— The only scenario where a tiebreaker between USC and UCLA comes into play is if USC win out, UCLA beats Concordia-Irvine but Pepperdine loses to Concordia-Irvine.
— A tiebreaker between BYU and UCLA only comes into the equation if UCLA loses both of its matches and BYU beats Grand Canyon. UCLA wins this tiebreaker by virtue of the percentage of sets won.

USC

Remaining matches: at Pepperdine, vs. UCLA

— The only team that controls its own fate are the Trojans. If the Trojans win their final two matches then they win the MPSF regular season title and the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament. Under that scenario, there would be a three-way tie for first-place with the Trojans holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. USC would have a 3-1 record versus UCLA and Pepperdine, while UCLA would be 2-2, and Pepperdine would be 1-3. Pepperdine would become the No. 2 seed as the MPSF tiebreaker procedures after a three-way tie is decided reverts back to the first tiebreaker between the two remaining teams.
— The lowest possible seed for USC in the MPSF Tournament is the No. 5. This happens if both BYU and Stanford beat Grand Canyon and USC loses out. Under this scenario, BYU finishes at 7-5, while USC and Stanford finish 6-6. USC loses the tiebreaker to Stanford based on points won.
— USC would be the No. 3 seed if it finishes in a three-way to tie with Stanford and BYU. USC wins the tiebreaker because it has won a greater percentage of sets (9-of-17) over the other two teams, despite Stanford winning more sets (10). Stanford would then become the No. 4 seed and BYU the No. 5 seed. BYU loses the head-to-head tiebreaker to Stanford based on percentage of sets won.

BYU

Remaining matches: at Grand Canyon

— The best possible seed in the MPSF Tournament is the No. 3 as listed above.
— Its lowest possible seed is No. 5 under any scenario when it loses at Grand Canyon and Stanford beats Grand Canyon.
— BYU can clinch the No. 4 seed and home court advantage for the MPSF Tournament quarterfinals if it beats Grand Canyon or Stanford loses to Grand Canyon.

Stanford

Remaining matches: at Grand Canyon

— The best possible seed for the MPSF Tournament is the No. 4 under the scenario when BYU is the No. 3 seed.
— Its lowest possible seed for the MPSF Tournament is No. 5, which Stanford has already clinched because it owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against Concordia-Irvine.

Concordia-Irvine

Remaining matches: at UCLA, at Pepperdine
— The best possible seed for MPSF Tournament is the No. 6. Concordia-Irvine can clinch this seed if it wins its final two matches, a win and a Grand Canyon loss or two Grand Canyon losses.
— Its lowest possible seed for the MPSF Tournament is No. 7. This can occur if Concordia-Irvine losses its remaining two matches and Grand Canyon or the Eagles win one match and Grand Canyon wins both its remaining matches.

Grand Canyon

Remaining matches: vs. BYU, vs. Stanford

— The best possible seed is No. 6 under the scenarios listed above.
— Its lowest possible seed is No. 7 based under the scenarios listed above.