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A lot can still happen as MPSF teams scramble in the final week of the regular season to secure their conference tournament seed.
Check out Off the Block special contributor Jonathan Bates’ breakdown all the possible scenarios for seeding to the MPSF Tournament.
LONG BEACH STATE and BYU
Worst case scenario: Earns No. 2 seed in MPSF Tournament
Best case scenario: Earns No. 1 seed in MPSF Tournament
- How it could happen
— Long Beach State clinches the top seed with a win against CSUN or a BYU loss to UC Santa Barbara.
— BYU clinches the top seed with a Long Beach State loss and two wins versus UC Santa Barbara.
HAWAI’I, UC IRVINE and UCLA
Worst case scenario: Earns No. 5 seed in MPSF Tournament
Best case scenario: Earns No. 3 seed in MPSF Tournament
- How it could happen
— Hawai’i must win a match against UCLA to clinch the No. 3 seed. Even if UC Irvine wins both matches, it would tie Hawai’i at 13-5 but loses the head-to-head tiebreaker.
— Hawai’i clinches the No. 4 seed if it loses both matches to UCLA and UC Irvine loses at least one match. Hawai’i can only be the fifth seed if UC Irvine is the third seed.
— UCLA clinches the No. 3 seed (and Hawai’i becomes the No. 4 seed and UCI the No. 5 seed) if it win both matches versus Hawai’i and UC Irvine loses at least one match. If all three team finish 12-6, UCLA would hold the three-way tiebreaker.
— UCLA is the No. 4 seed if both it along with UC Irvine win their next two matches.
— UC Irvine is the No. 3 seed only if it wins both its matches against Stanford and Pepperdine. In addition, UCLA must beat Hawai’i twice.
— UC Irvine is the No. 4 seed if it wins one of its remaining matches and Hawai’i and UCLA split their series - BOTTOMLINE: UCLA/Hawai’i tiebreaker is TBD but won’t be a factor unless UCLA beats Hawai’i twice — at that point UCLA would have the head-to-head matches won tiebreaker. UC Irvine loses the tiebreaker to both UCLA and Hawai’i. The three-way tiebreaker would result in UCLA at the No. 3 seed, Hawai’i at the No. 4 seed and UC Irvine at the No. 5 seed.
STANFORD and PEPPERDINE
Worst case scenario: Earns No. 8 seed in MPSF Tournament
Best case scenario: Earns No. 6 seed in MPSF Tournament
- How it could happen
— Pepperdine is the No. 6 seed if it beats UC Irvine and UC San Diego, both Stanford and — Pepperdine splits its remaining two matches or both Stanford and Pepperdine lose both their matches and USC loses one match.
USC
Worst case scenario: Misses MPSF Tournament
Best case scenario: Earns No. 6 seed in MPSF Tournament
- How it could happen
— USC must win out. In addition, Stanford lose both its matches and Pepperdine loses at least on match. USC loses the tiebreaker to Stanford on points margin but wins the tiebreaker versus Pepperdine on points won.
— USC is the No. 7 seed if it finishes tied with Stanford at 8-10 and Pepperdine loses both matches against UC Irvine and UC San Diego.
— USC is the No. 8 seed seed if both Stanford and Pepperdine win its both matches or Stanford and Pepperdine split both matches and USC splits with Cal Baptist. It can also earn the No. 8 seed if Stanford and Pepperdine lose both matches USC loses once to Cal Baptist and UC Santa Barbara wins both matches against BYU. In the head-to-head tiebreaker, Pepperdine and Stanford would both be 3-2, USC would be 3-3 and UC Santa Barbara would be 1-3.
UC SANTA BARBARA
Worst case scenario: Misses MPSF tournament
Best case scenario: Clinches No. 8 seed in MPSF Tournament.
- How it could happen
Win both matches against BYU and USC losses both matches to Cal Baptist. UC Santa Barbara would have a 7-11 MPSF record, while USC would finish at 6-12.
Split matches with BYU, USC loses both matches to Cal Baptist, and CSUN beat Long Beach State. All teams would be 6-12, but UC Santa Barbara wins the three-way tiebreaker of head-to-head record (Trojans are 2-2, Gauchos are 2-1 and Matadors are 1-2).