Bracketology: Team comparisons using NCAA selection committee criteria

It’s a slim gap between those making the NCAA Tournament and those missing out on an at-large bid as the postseason begins.

Off the Block has crunched the numbers using the same criteria as the selection committee to show how the top teams in the nation fare against each other in the race for the two at-large bids and NCAA Tournament seeding.


Below is an excerpt from the NCAA handbook on the primary criteria the three-person volleyball selection committee will use determines the at-large team and seeding for the NCAA Tournament.
– RPI ranking
– Won-lost results
– Head-to-head competition
– Results versus non-conference opponents
– Home and away results
– Results against common opponents
– Results against teams already qualified and other teams under consideration
– Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships.

The selection committee does not consider match results against NAIA teams or NCAA Division III teams. Only matches against NCAA Division I-II teams factors into the criteria.

Some selection committees in previous seasons have placed a greater emphasis on a certain categories. However, there is no requirement that the committee gives additional weight to a certain category.

The six-team NCAA Tournament will comprised of conference automatic bids from the MIVA, MPSF, EIVA and Conference Carolinas along with two at-large bids.

Here’s how the at-large bids and tournament seeding races look right now using the selection committee criteria and giving equal weight to each criteria category.

[Editor’s note: Teams projected to qualify or be under consideration are BYU, Long Beach State, UCLA, Stanford, Ohio State, Loyola, Ball State, Penn State and Erskine. The amount of teams under consideration will continue to change as it gets closer to Selection Sunday on April 24]

POTENTIAL NCAA TOURNAMENT SEEDING AND AT-LARGE BID BATTLES

BYU vs. Long Beach State
RPI ranking: Edge: BYU
Won-lost results: BYU 23-3; Long Beach State 23-6. Edge: BYU
Head-to-head competition: Season series tied at 1-1 Edge: Push
Non-conference record: BYU 4-0; Long Beach State 6-1. Edge: BYU
Home record: BYU 10-2; Long Beach State 10-3. Edge: BYU
Road record: BYU 13-1; Long Beach State 9-3. Edge: BYU
Record vs. common opponents: BYU 18-2; Long Beach State 16-4. Edge: BYU
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: BYU 5-2; Long Beach State 3-5. Edge: BYU
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: BYU

BYU vs. UCLA
RPI ranking: Edge: BYU
Won-lost results: BYU 23-3; UCLA 23-5. Edge: BYU
Head-to-head competition: BYU leads season series 2-0. Edge: BYU
Non-conference record: BYU 4-0; UCLA 6-0. Edge: Push
Home record: BYU 10-2; UCLA 11-3. Edge: BYU
Road record: BYU 13-1; UCLA 11-2. Edge: BYU
Record vs. common opponents: BYU 18-3; UCLA 18-3. Edge: Push
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: BYU 5-2; UCLA 6-3. Edge: BYU
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: BYU

BYU vs. Stanford
RPI ranking: Edge: BYU
Won-lost results: BYU 23-3; Stanford 19-5. Edge: BYU
Head-to-head competition: Season series tied at 1-1. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: BYU 4-0; Stanford 2-0. Edge: Push
Home record: BYU 10-2; Stanford 10-1. Edge: Stanford
Road record: BYU 13-1; Stanford 9-4. Edge: BYU
Record vs. common opponents: BYU 18-2; Stanford 16-4. Edge: BYU
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: BYU 5-2; Stanford 4-3. Edge: BYU
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: BYU

BYU vs. Ohio State
RPI ranking: Edge: BYU
Won-lost results: BYU 23-3; Ohio State 25-2. Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-head competition: Did not play each other this season. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: BYU 4-0; Ohio State 10-1. Edge: BYU
Home record: BYU 10-2; Ohio State 12-1. Edge: Ohio State
Road record: BYU 13-1; Ohio State 11-0. Edge: Ohio State
Record vs. common opponents: BYU 10-1; Ohio State 8-1. Edge: BYU
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: BYU 5-2; Ohio State 7-2. Edge: Ohio State
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: Ohio State

Long Beach State vs. UCLA
RPI ranking: Edge: Long Beach State
Won-lost results: Long Beach State 23-6; UCLA 23-5. Edge: UCLA
Head-to-head competition: UCLA leads season series 2-0 Edge: UCLA
Non-conference record: Long Beach State 6-1; UCLA 6-0. Edge: UCLA
Home record: Long Beach State 10-3; UCLA 11-3. Edge: UCLA
Road record: Long Beach State 9-3; UCLA 11-2. Edge: UCLA
Record vs. common opponents: Long Beach State 18-4; UCLA 17-5. Edge: Long Beach State
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Long Beach State 3-5; UCLA 6-3. Edge: UCLA
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: UCLA

Long Beach State vs. Stanford
RPI ranking: Edge: Stanford
Won-lost results: Long Beach State 23-6; Stanford 19-5. Edge: Long Beach State
Head-to-head competition: Season series tied at 1-1. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Long Beach State 6-1; Stanford 2-0. Edge: Stanford
Home record: Long Beach State 10-3; Stanford 10-1. Edge: Stanford
Road record: Long Beach State 9-3; Stanford 9-4. Edge: Long Beach State
Record vs. common opponents: Long Beach State 15-5; Stanford 16-4. Edge: Stanford
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Long Beach State 3-5; Stanford 4-3. Edge: Stanford
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: Stanford

Long Beach State vs. Ohio State
RPI ranking: Edge: Ohio State
Won-lost results: Long Beach State 23-6; Ohio State 25-2. Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-head competition: Ohio State won season series 1-0. Edge: Ohio State
Non-conference record: Long Beach State 6-1; Ohio State 10-1. Edge: Ohio State
Home record: Long Beach State 10-3; Ohio State 12-1. Edge: Ohio State
Road record: Long Beach State 9-3; Ohio State 11-0. Edge: Ohio State
Record vs. common opponents: Long Beach State 8-2; Ohio State 9-1. Edge: Ohio State
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Long Beach State 3-5; Ohio State 7-2. Edge: Ohio State
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: Ohio State

UCLA vs. Stanford
RPI ranking: Edge: UCLA
Won-lost results: UCLA 23-5; Stanford 19-5. Edge: UCLA
Head-to-head competition: Season series tied at 1-1. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: UCLA 6-0; Stanford 2-0. Edge: Push
Home record: UCLA 11-3; Stanford 10-1. Edge: Stanford
Road record: UCLA 11-2; Stanford 9-4. Edge: UCLA
Record vs. common opponents: UCLA 17-4; Stanford 17-4. Edge: Push
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UCLA 6-3; Stanford 4-3. Edge: UCLA
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: UCLA

UCLA vs. Ohio State
RPI ranking: Edge: Ohio State
Won-lost results: UCLA 23-5; Ohio State 25-2. Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-head competition: UCLA leads season series 1-0 Edge: UCLA
Non-conference record: UCLA 6-0; Ohio State 10-1. Edge: UCLA
Home record: UCLA 11-3; Ohio State 12-1. Edge: Ohio State
Road record: UCLA 11-2; Ohio State 11-0. Edge: Ohio State
Record vs. common opponents: UCLA 8-1; Ohio State 7-1. Edge: UCLA
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: UCLA 6-3; Ohio State 7-2. Edge: Ohio State
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: Ohio State

Ohio State vs. Stanford
RPI ranking: Edge: Ohio State
Won-lost results: Ohio State 25-2; Stanford 19-5. Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-head competition: Did not play each other this season.Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Ohio State 10-1; Stanford 2-0. Edge: Stanford
Home record: Ohio State 12-1; Stanford 10-1. Edge: Push
Road record: Ohio State 11-0; Stanford 9-4. Edge: Ohio State
Record vs. common opponents: Ohio State 6-2; Stanford 8-2. Edge: Stanford
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Ohio State 7-2; Stanford 4-3. Edge: Ohio State
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: Ohio State

POTENTIAL NCAA TOURNAMENT SEEDING BATTLES

Penn State vs. Erskine
RPI ranking: Edge: Penn State
Won-lost results: Penn State 18-8; Erskine 17-6. Edge: Erskine
Head-to-head competition: Did not play each other this season. Edge: Push
Non-conference record: Penn State 7-7; Erskine 2-3. Edge: Penn State
Home record: Penn State 12-6; Erskine 8-1. Edge: Erskine
Road record: Penn State 6-2; Erskine 8-5. Edge: Penn State
Record vs. common opponents: Penn State 3-4; Erskine 2-3. Edge: Penn State
Record vs. teams qualified or under consideration: Penn State 1-6; Erskine 0-2. Edge: Penn State
Eligibility and availability of athletes: Neither teams with serious injuries. Edge: Push
OVERALL EDGE: Penn State

7 Replies to “Bracketology: Team comparisons using NCAA selection committee criteria”

  1. You Americans are NUTS – bats..t crazy – with your analysis.

    The post-season playoffs is always a new season. There will be upsets. Some of them will be huge. Then the tournament at Penn State is a new season again.

    You should try looking at the team composition. The strength off the bench. The ability of teams to beat teams ranked above them. The style of play of teams. The way teams use their key assets and also protect against the failure of their liabilities. Look too at the current ‘form of a team’s key assets and the ability of the team to play at a whole new level now that it is April – then look at the team’s ability to rise to a new level in May.

    You guys at Off The Block are way too CA focused or CA centric. You are missing what is really happening in NCAA Men’s Volleyball. It is changing. The style of play is changing. The type of team that can sustain a run in the finals series is changing.

    You guys at OTB are locked into the old thinking of the CA establishment. Big guys who hammer the ball are not the asset that they use to be. We are at the beginning of an emerging era in men’s volleyball where defence is paramount – digging, retrieving, net tips, rolling into vacant space, soft power, etc. There is a new way to play volleyball. Ball State has led the way this season but they are ‘out of condition’ after too many 5 set matches and now have suffered a huge loss of confidence in losing to a ‘weak’ Lewis team. Long Beach is another whose scrambling play is part of the next wave in volleyball – I note that you barely rate them (ha, ha, ha). Hawaii is an interesting mix of the old and the new and they will be a force in the near future. BYU is the old – through and through. They are false favourites to win this year.

    I am biased. My son is STAR outside hitter. His name is Gerrard Lipscombe. He had a severe setback with illness this season otherwise he might have been an All American. He can pass the ball. He can dig the ball. He can clean up behind the block. He can serve aces – both hard and soft power. He can hammer the ball – just passed 1000 kills for career at GCU (only second play to achieve that feat). And yet in 4 years he has rarely has been the designated hitter so that is a true milestone.

    Gerrard is well known to people who understand volleyball in the USA and abroad – yet he is only 6′ -2” tall. His greatest asset, perhaps, is that he moves like a tiger. He will be a future STAR in this new era when Men’s Volleyball grows up as it is showing an inking to do right now.

    Men’s Volleyball will transmogrify into a butterfly soon – a game more and more people want to watch. It will become a combination of the power game of men and the rally style game of women.

    Finally, GCU is a real chance to beat Lewis, Ohio State, and Loyola to win the MIVA.

    How well will they do in season 3 at Penn State? I have no idea but I know that they will play an exciting new brand of volleyball – one that more and more people will like and thus want to watch. A style based on speed, reflexes, endurance, and volleyball IQ. Those teams you mentioned above severely lack some of those attributes……..

    Best Wishes OTB team

    Richard Lipscombe
    Prague, Czech Republic
    13/04/2016

    1. Richard,

      Thanks for the insight and love watching Gerrard play this season. No doubts the Antelopes are looking to bust some brackets this year just like they did in 2013. You bring up a great point about intangibles. However, important to remember the selection committee only looks at the tangible data when determining the NCAA Tournament field.

    1. Massive typo on our part. Updated and corrected. Thanks for letting us know Ohio State has overall edge.

  2. Why does Stanford have the edge over Ohio State? Of the nine criteria used, Stanford wins 3, Ohio State wins 3, and 3 are pushes, so essentially a tie. You’ve given Stanford the edge, so what lead you to do that?

    1. Zazu, Thanks for noticing that. We had a major stat error on that entry that in accidentally overlooked. Post has been updated. Ohio State has overall edge.

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